Path To AGI, AI Alignment, Digital Minds

"Professor Nick Bostrom, Director of the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute, talks about the development of artificial intelligence and its impact on the future of civilization. Since the publication of his book ""Superintelligence"" in 2014, AI has advanced faster than expected, with particularly impressive advances in large language models and transformers in various domains. Bostrom believes that a ""slow"" or ""moderate"" scenario for AI development is more likely, rather than decades of gradual progress until superintelligence is achieved. Key challenges include the problem of leveling AI, where the main uncertainty is how difficult this task will be technically. Bostrom identifies several promising areas: work on interpretability, teaching AI human concepts of morality and safety, and developing systems that can faithfully imitate human behavior.
Concerning the future of humanity, Bostrom believes that a ""singleton"" scenario - a single coordinating force at the highest level of decision-making - is more likely than a multipolar world with competition. It also highlights the importance of considering the moral status of digital minds, since most future minds are likely to be digital."